Moravcik 67 explains how next season’s Champions League is shaping up for Celtic

It’s that time of the year when Moravcik 67 – Celtic fans go to Bhoy for all matters relating to the complexities of European competition – outlines the situation that we’ll be facing in the coming months. The big difference as you know is that there will be no need to worry about the perils of the qualifying rounds this year because Celtic are guaranteed a place in the Group stages, pot 4.

Looking at the the three pots above is pretty daunting to say the least but that said, that’s the challenge that Ange Postecoglou craves and will relish.

Moravcik 67’s thread posted this evening is featured below. It’s well worth a read…

1. How the CL groups for next season are shaping up. The teams in black qualify automatically. Those in red have to qualify.

If Madrid win the CL, Ajax will be Pot 1, Liverpool Pot 2 (1st picture).

If Liverpool win the CL, they will be Pot 1, Ajax Pot 2. (2nd picture)

2. Pot 3 might look slightly different. If Benfica don’t qualify then a team will move up from Pot 4 – Rangers, if they qualify.

Pot 4 might look very different, as that’s where most of the qualifiers will be. There aren’t enough of them to move us up, so Celtic will be Pot 4.

3. As you can see, the potential for our usual group of death is pretty high. I’m already envisaging some kind of Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter Milan abomination.

It would be nice to see the best players in the world at CP, but it’d also be nice not to get pumped 6 times.

4. Money. Celtic will get €15.64M just for turning up. We also get a payment based on our 10 year coefficient.

Based on the teams projected to qualify in the pictures in the 1st tweet, it’d be around €8M. But it depends on who qualifies.

5. We’d get an extra ~€1.1M for each of Benfica and Olympiakos who fail to qualify. So it could go up to over €10M at best.

But it could also drop ~€1.1M for each of Monaco, Dynamo Kyiv and PSV who qualify, although only 2 of them can.

6. Frankfurt winning the EL meant they overtook us in the 10 year ranking, costing €1.1M. But it prevented Rangers from qualifying automatically, which would have cost us ~€3.5M in the Market Pool. So fair enough.

Of course if Rangers qualify we get hit with the double whammy.

7. If Copenhagen qualify then we’ll be above them in the 10 year rankings only on the basis of the bonus points we get for our win in Lisbon in 1967.

That’s worth ~€1.1M to us. The Lions are still contributing to the club, more than 50 years on.

8. As mentioned above, we also get money for the Scottish market pool. The amount has fallen recently. It’s probably worth ~€7M to Scotland.

It’s all ours if Rangers don’t qualify. If they do qualify then we share it. It’s complex. Easier to say we’ll get 55%, they’ll get 45%.

9. Finally, we get money for our performance – €2.8M per win, €930K per draw.

It’s clearly much harder to win a game in the CL. But 1 CL win is worth more than 4 EL wins.

To put it into perspective, we made about ~€2M from performance payments in this season’s EL groups.

10. This is all before our usual revenue from tickets and sponsorship, etc. So, there’s a fair chunk of money coming our way.

Hard to quantify it at present, but you’re probaly talking €25-32M before you even consider performance payments and ticket sales.

11. Other scottish clubs. Rangers start in CL QR3, and will face one of Monaco, Midtjylland
Sturm Graz, Royale Union SG, Fenerbahce or AEK Larnaca.

In the playoff they could also meet Dynamo Kyiv or PSV, along with the above, depending on who makes it through.

12. Hearts start in the EL Playoff. The draw for that is pretty weird these days.

They could initially be drawn against Dynamo Kyiv, Midtjylland, Fenerbahce, AEK Larnaca (whichever of those are knocked out of CL QR2), or Partizan Belgrade or Slovacko.

13. If not, they could then be drawn against a team knocked out of QR2 of the champions route of CL qualifying.

So who the hell knows who they’ll get. It could be anyone from Dinamo Zagreb to Hibernians of Malta. Which would be kinda funny. Okay, maybe not.

14. If they’re knocked out the PO, Hearts will drop into the conference groups. They have a chance of being Pot 3, but also might slip back into Pot 4 depending on who else qualifies alongside them.

It’s a great chance for them, and they can earn some cash doing it.

15. Neil Lennon’s new team, Omonia Nicosia, are in the final of the Cypriot Cup. If they win, it looks like they’ll be in the EL PO alongside Hearts.

Frankfurt’s win bumped them up from QR3 so it doesn’t look like there’ll be a welcome home party at Tynecastle for him.

16. Motherwell start in QR2 of the Conference, and will be seeded. It really will be luck of the draw, as there is a mix of teams from places like Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Turkey, and another batch from places like San Marino, Malta, etc.

17. If they make it through they’ll be joined in QR3 by Dundee Utd. Both will be unseeded, and could face the likes of Basel, the Prague teams, Young Boys, PAOK, AZ, Basaksehir, Anderlecht, Twente, etc.

Depends on the draw, of course, but it’s a longshot to make the groups.

18. A big test coming up for Scotland. We’ll start the season ranked 8th, with a 10pt gap up to 7th, and a smaller 4.9pt gap down to Belgium in 10th.

Unfortunately, the further up the rankings we go, the harder it becomes to generate the points to maintain the position.

19. We’ll play in fewer qualifiers again, next season. We get a fair few points from those usually. We all need to contribute, now more than ever. Particularly the 3 teams in the groups.

And yeh, that includes Celtic. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done in the CL.

About Author

Born just as Celtic were stopping the Ten, Lubo98 follows Celtic home and away and helps run his local Celtic Supporters Club. He goes to all the games and is a Law Graduate. Has a particular fondness for Tom Rogic among the current Celts and both Lubo and Henrik form his earliest Celtic memories.

1 Comment

  1. As much as I love your wonderful analysis Moravcick67, I also want you to stop giving me palpatations regarding our future enemies. CL is CL and CL will give us CL opponents. Let’s just see who we get and take it from there.