Celtic’s xG total of 4.24 highest in Europa League this season

It was probably a game few of us were looking forward to. But after Europa League Matchday 3, Celtic find themselves in the play-off places on current standings. One win, one draw and one loss from the first three games…

Kasper Schmeichel of Celtic
Kasper Schmeichel of Celtic arrives at the stadium prior to the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

So, what can you say about this one? Firstly, it was a strange feeling. It felt like picking up the phone to a friend you haven’t spoken to in months and picking up exactly where you left off. It was enjoyment. And that in itself has felt rare this season.

It’s been a tough old campaign. We’ve yet to hit our stride. But even if this game had continued the way the first half went, even if the scoreline hadn’t turned our way, you could see shoots of recovery. The performance was there. It was the best we’ve played all season and not just the second half, the whole game.

Tomi Horvat of Strum Graz scores
Tomi Horvat of Strum Graz scores his team’s first goal during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Sturm Graz scored first with a world class, unsaveable effort. One of those strikes where there’s no complaint to be made, you simply take the hit and go again. And Celtic did. We responded well, kept passing, kept creating, kept believing. We were playing good football and we got our reward.

The equaliser was a lovely goal. Engels picked out Donovan with a smart ball, Donovan settled and found Scales with a beautiful assist, and Scales directed the ball subtly into the corner of the net. Composed. Confident. Clean. A centre-back finishing like that says everything about how comfortable we were in the game. It told you Celtic were playing again, rather than just existing in matches.

Benjamin Nygren of Celtic scores
Benjamin Nygren of Celtic scores his team’s second goal with a header during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Nygren then scored the winner, and while he could also have had more — he fluffed plenty — that doesn’t matter as much as the fact he kept getting there. The post-match stats say he accounted for 2.43 of Celtic’s total xG on his own. He was clearly delighted with the goal, and he had every right to be. For a team that has been struggling to create angles and spaces, the fact he is repeatedly appearing in goalscoring positions has to be persevered with. It might be patchy, but it also has potential.

Johnny Kenny continues to show what we all know, there is a lot there. He’s a trier and a battler, and what he lacks in polish he makes up for in endeavour. Will the technical refinement come with games? Well, we’re about to find out, because that brings us to the cost of the night.

It was a win, and a performance, but it came at a price.

Kelechi Iheanacho of Celtic
Kelechi Iheanacho of Celtic is taken off the pitch after being seen to by medical staff during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

First, Iheanacho looked absolutely distraught leaving the field with a hamstring injury, with Kenny replacing him. Halfway through the first half, Johnston joined him. It looks like a reoccurrence of the injury that had kept him out since the Kairat home leg. There will be the criticism — “rushed back too soon” — the benefit of hindsight brigade will say. But the fact is, it was a gamble worth taking. We needed our best players on the pitch. It’s a tough one to take for player and support alike, but hopefully it’s a strain rather than a tear and he’s back soon enough.

Alistair Johnston of Celtic
Alistair Johnston of Celtic looks dejected as he is substituted off the pitch during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Then injury number three arrived at the end of the game. Carter-Vickers, struggling with what looked like a calf problem, made it to the final whistle only because the manager had used all three substitution windows. He had to be helped off at full-time. Johnston, Carter-Vickers and Iheanacho, big players, important players, players who will be missed in the coming weeks.

Arne Engels of Celtic celebrates at full time
Arne Engels of Celtic celebrates at full time during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

But as with any crisis, opportunity knocks.

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Colby Donovan of Celtic
Colby Donovan of Celtic is seen during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Colby Donovan replaced Johnston, and after settling down had another good game. He is an offensively-minded full-back. With Nygren now looking like Celtic’s first choice right-winger going forward — and he has to be — Donovan becomes important. Nygren has a tendency to drive inside, and he lacks outright pace, so he’ll need overlaps. Donovan can be that man. Give him a run, starting on Sunday at Tynecastle. With Engels also in the team, that right hand side, a problem all season, could offer a collection of attributes which could well knit.

Opportunity will also knock for Johnny Kenny. He should have scored, but he puts himself about. He presses, he harries, he battles. Supporters will forgive a lot when they see effort matched with bravery.

Callum McGregor of Celtic
Callum McGregor of Celtic during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Engels was superb. Callum McGregor had his best game in some time, funny what happens when he has someone beside him who recognises his defensive responsibilities. Hatate blew hot and cold, as he always does, but came into the game late on. We know what we get from Reo, consistently inconsistent, but capable of changing the tempo of a match whenever he chooses.

Celtic’s xG total of 4.24 was apparently the highest of any side in the Europa League this season, and the club’s highest in a major European match since records began in 2013–14. The team will take confidence from that. So will the support. It was a shot in the arm.

Benjamin Nygren of Celtic celebrates
Benjamin Nygren of Celtic celebrates scoring his team’s second goal with teammates (L-R) Marco Tilio, Kieran Tierney and Liam Scales during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

We did concede, but it was a world-class finish. Sturm Graz also hit the post in the first half and had a header go close in the second. They had a decent attack and Celtic coped well overall. We may have been profligate in front of goal, but that’s being picky. A team short on confidence snatches at chances. Nygren, Kenny, Hatate, they all had moments. When confidence truly returns, those go in.

Scales took his goal like a striker. Engels and Donovan deserve praise for everything in the build-up. Nygren’s winner from a sensational Engels delivery was the least the Swede deserved. He may frustrate but he is always a threat.

Kieran Tierney of Celtic
Kieran Tierney of Celtic arrives at the stadium prior to the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

A quick word for Kieran Tierney and Seb Tounekti too. A partnership in the making? On last night’s evidence, there might just be. Both worked their socks off. Tounekti deserved his ovation as he left the field.

Arne Engels of Celtic
Arne Engels of Celtic is challenged by Emanuel Aiwu of Strum Graz during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD3 match between Celtic FC and SK Sturm Graz at Celtic Park on October 23, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Now it’s Tynecastle. A Sunday, high-noon, top-of-the-table clash. We could go eight points behind, but we could also cut the gap to just two. Celtic now go into it with more belief than they would have otherwise. This has to be a beginning. A shift. A step forward. There can be no return to inconsistency.

Are Celtic back? You’d be daft to say so based on one game. But we got what we needed, a much needed win in Europe, a performance that lifted us, and the return of confidence and creativity.

If Dens Park on Sunday was joyless, Celtic Park on Thursday night was the opposite.

Maybe — just maybe — this is where the story turns.

Niall J

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Celtic in the Eighties and Willie Fernie - Putting on the Style both by David Potter
Celtic in the Eighties and Willie Fernie – Putting on the Style both by David Potter. Photo The Celtic Star
Danny McGrain signing copies of Celtic in the Eighties
Danny McGrain signing copies of Celtic in the Eighties by David Potter. Photo: Celtic Star Books

About Author

As a Bellshill Bhoy I was taken to my first Celtic game in the summer of 1987. It was Billy McNeill’s return to Celtic Park as manager and Celtic lost 5-1 to Arsenal . I thought I was a jinx, I think my Grandfather might have thought the same. It was the finest gift anyone ever gave me when he walked me through Parkhead's gates.

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