Champions League – Opta explains Celtic’s slim chance of finishing in top eight

Aston Villa prepared for their clash with Celtic on Wednesday night in the Champions League with a 1-1 draw against West Ham at Villa Park…

Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate during the UEFA Champions League match between Celtic FC and BSC Young Boys at Celtic Park on January 22,2025.Photo:JustPictures.ch. Richard Callis (IMAGO)

Celtic travel South on Wednesday evening for their final Champions League group phase outing before a two-legged knockout playoff round next month with the draw commencing on Friday at lunchtime.

Aston Villa looking to secure top eight finish against Celtic 

Their opponents in two days’ time, Aston Villa, who were held to a 1-1 draw with Graham Potter’s West Ham are currently ninth on 13 points after seven games in Europe’s elite club competition. A win for Unai Emery’s men versus the Hoops would likely see Villa impressively seal a top eight spot which would secure last 16 football and crucially skip the knockout playoffs.

So far in 2025, Villa have won three of their six encounters in all competitions. Without a win in three following draws against Arsenal and West Ham coupled with a 1-0 defeat to Ligue 1 high-flyers Monaco last week, Emery’s side will be aiming to overcome a slight dip in form with a victory against the Scottish champions.

With England almost certainly guaranteed an extra Champions League spot this season, 5th place in the English Premier League will see you qualify automatically for next seasons elongated 36-team format in Europe’s top tier competition.

Villa sits in eighth position in a congested English Premier League table and are narrowly four points off Newcastle United and Manchester City who reside in those elusive Champions League spots alongside Liverpool, Arsenal and Nottingham Forrest with 15 matches still to play.

Celtic currently positioned 18th in the Champions League

On the other hand, Celtic are positioned 18th in the Champions League. If the table was to remain the same way come Thursday morning as it is just now, it would be either Bayern Munich or Real Madrid in the knockout playoffs in mid-February for Brendan Rodgers’ men with the winners of that tie then facing Liverpool or Barcelona in the last 16.

Interestingly, with each Champions League game kicking off at 8:00pm on Wednesday night, who Rodgers’ side will face in the knockout stages will likely change across the 90 minutes as the goals start to flow in elsewhere.

Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings of Aston Villa leaves the pitch with a injury during the Premier League match between Aston Villa FC and West Ham United FC at Villa Park on January 26, 2025. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

The permutations heading into the game are simple. A victory at Villa Park and Celtic can finish anywhere between 5th and 15th. A draw and it would see Celtic place themselves anywhere between 13th and 22nd. A defeat, and 18th would be the minimum the Hoops can finish, but finishing 24th is impossible.

Never say never, but Opta have given Celtic a less than 1% chance of finishing in the top eight. The Celts would need to win in Birmingham and also have seven other results go their way. Stranger things have happened.

Nicolas Kuhn
Nicolas Kuhn of Celtic attempts a kick for score his goal during the UEFA Champions League match between Celtic FC and BSC Young Boys at Celtic Park on January 22, 2025. Photo JustPictures.ch

As per Scotland’s Coefficient on X, “at full time, all teams will know if they are home or away in the first leg of the knockout tie, and who their TWO possible opponents are.”

A Celtic win at Villa Park would be a monumental way to complete an enthralling eight games

Despite already qualifying and securing double digit games, an interesting evening on and off the pitch awaits, and with 2100 Celtic supporters at least in the stadium on Wednesday, a third win away in the Champions League would be a monumental way to complete an enthralling eight games.

COYBIG!

Conor Spence

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About Author

A current third year student studying History and Journalism, Media and Communications at the University of Strathclyde and now writing regularly about the Hoops for The Celtic Star.

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