Champions League play-off carries an uneasy sense of déjà vu

If this window ends in failure, neither Desmond nor Lawwell will take the fall. That leaves Nicholson, the CEO, and McKay, the CFO, in the spotlight, alongside the manager.

Claim that Celtic’s summer recruitment list has been exhausted

Former Athletic journalist Kieran Devlin has claimed this week that Celtic’s recruitment list for the summer has already been exhausted with the recruitment team’s recommended players either moving elsewhere or rejecting the club’s advances. When that happens, the process shifts into ‘Agent Recommendation’ mode. Waiting for agents to pitch players, or sending out the informal ‘so what have you got for me?’ message.

The pattern from there is familiar. A player wants to leave his club. The selling club sets a price via the agent. The agent contacts the club. Celtic take a fortnight to conclude the deal.

The Auston Trusty fallback

Last summer’s protracted Dara O’Shea chase, which ended with the Auston Trusty fallback, is a perfect example. There’s nothing wrong with agent recommendations as part of a coherent plan — but when they become the plan, alarm bells ring.

Nicholson and McKay oversee negotiations and financial sign-off. Last summer showed cracks in their execution. The club arguably overpaid for two of the main three signings they made, and in key markets, the pair appeared out of their depth.

Celtic can close certain deals quickly. Free transfers for ex-players eager to return. Cut-price moves in markets like Japan or Denmark, where Celtic’s name and brand carries significant weight. But in the ‘quality’ market Rodgers demands — targeting at the very least proven Europa League players capable of stepping up to Champions League level — Celtic often falter. These are the deals that require precision, speed and skill, yet they’re the ones that most frequently stall.

Celtic, from the outside looking in, have not implemented visible structural reforms to fix the process

Since the Ange Postecoglou era and the days of CAA Base and Dom McKay, the club has struggled to execute multiple deals across different markets with both pace and accuracy. Even after acknowledging past transfer shortcomings, even coming close to apologising for them, Celtic, from the outside looking in, have not implemented visible structural reforms to fix the process.

Brendan Rodgers has been consistent in his messaging. To compete properly in the Champions League, Celtic must add a few quality players. That is the difference he believes will make the difference between simply making up the numbers in the new League stage, if we get there, and pushing for the last 16 — something Celtic have not achieved since a December 2012 win over Spartak Moscow under Neil Lennon.

This time, that card cannot be played

And now, with the lessons of 2018 burned into memory, the manager is in a stronger position. Last time, he left the following February, and the board were able to brief the narrative that he was to blame. This time, that card cannot be played. Rodgers has explicitly promised he will be at the club until the end of his contract at least — longer if he is allowed to build rather than merely maintain.

The personnel may have changed, but the structural rhythm remains. In 2018 it was injuries, suspensions, stalled negotiations, and a narrow Champions League exit. In 2025 it is injuries, thin squad depth in key areas, missed primary targets, and the risk of entering the play-off underpowered.

In both cases, the board’s slow approach risked undermining the football objective. In both, Rodgers has had to balance public optimism with private exasperation. Champions League qualification is more than prestige, it is the foundation of the club’s financial model. The revenue funds future transfers, helps retain top players, such as Daizen Maeda and Reo Hatate, and maintains domestic dominance. Miss out, and the knock-on effects can ripple.

Michael Nicholson has now overseen multiple windows where primary targets slipped away and reactive signings filled the gaps

If Celtic go into this play-off short of quality and fall short, accountability must follow. With Desmond and Lawwell unlikely to take the hit, and the CFO seemingly avoiding criticism up to now, the buck will stop with the CEO. Nicholson has now overseen multiple windows where primary targets slipped away and reactive signings filled the gaps. If the same happens again — if the club ends up relying on agent throw-ins because the main list was exhausted or negotiations dragged — heads will have to roll.

The lesson from 2018 was obvious. Cautious spending in July and August can be a false economy. Waiting to qualify before properly investing can mean you fail to qualify because you didn’t invest.

The optimistic take now is that Celtic get the right signings over the line in time, Rodgers beds them in quickly, and the club reaches the League stage. The pessimistic take is the same slow processes drag on, qualification slips away, and the déjà vu is complete.

For now, the play-off and the final weeks of the window will decide whether this summer is remembered for strategic patience or for damaging hesitance. But the warning signs are already there.

In 2018, Celtic flew too close to the sun with a squad just shy of European quality. In 2025, they risk charting the same course — with the same possible ending. That’s quite the gamble to take, especially with history to learn from.

Niall J

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