A few hearts started to flutter amongst the ‘Rangers’ support when news of the end of the football season was announced in the Netherlands. If there were any Celtic fans in any way concerned they needn’t have been.
When Dutch football announced the 2019-20 Eredevisie would be ending early as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, it caused a few ripples in Scottish football, though mainly on Ibrox online forums.
Friday’s announcement was one thing, though how the authorities decided to award the placings seemed a little controversial. Really it shouldn’t be seen as such, nor should it give hope to the remaining dissenters – should that be singular rather than plural – in the SPFL who view the Dutch model as a fair way to cease our own season.
The Dutch statement, as reported in The Guardian, said there will be no Champions in both the Eredivisie and the second-tier Keuken Kampioen Divisie and none of the leading clubs in these leagues will be named 2020 Champions.
It also stated that there will be no promotion or relegation in these competitions even though there were many games still to be played:
“Since the cup final cannot be played, there is no winner this season. It has been decided to place the ticket for the winner to the highest in the rankings, after the Champions League,” Eredivisie said.
Eredivisie had all-but confirmed the current campaign had been cancelled after the Netherlands Prime Minister earlier announced professional football matches couldn’t be played for another four months. Mark Rutte announced organised events remain banned until 1 September. This was key in the Dutch decision and how they landed on their solution.
Prior to this, UEFA in their statement the previous day had paved the way for the Dutch and other countries to end their leagues:
“The ideal scenario, should the pandemic situation permit it, is to have the currently suspended domestic competitions completed enabling football clubs to qualify for UEFA club competitions on sporting merit in their original format. Should this outcome not be possible, in particular due to calendar issues, it would be preferable that suspended domestic competitions would restart with a different format in a manner which would still facilitate clubs to qualify on sporting merit.
While using best efforts to complete the domestic competitions, National Associations and/or Leagues might have legitimate reasons to prematurely terminate their domestic competitions, in particular in the following cases.
Existence of an official order prohibiting sports events so that the domestic competitions cannot be completed before a date that would make it possible to complete the current season in good time before the next season to start.
Insurmountable economic problems which make finishing the season impossible because it would put at risk the long-term financial stability of the domestic competition and/or clubs.
If a domestic competition is prematurely terminated for legitimate reasons in accordance with the above conditions, UEFA would require the National Association concerned to select clubs for the UEFA club competitions 2020/21 based on sporting merit in the 2019/20 domestic competitions:
The procedure for selecting clubs should be based on objective, transparent and non-discriminatory principles. National Associations and Leagues, should otherwise have the ability to decide the final positions in their domestic competitions, having regard to the specific circumstances of each competition;
the final determination of eligible places for the UEFA club competitions should be confirmed by the relevant competent bodies at domestic level.
UEFA reserves the right to refuse or evaluate the admission to any club proposed by a National Association from a prematurely terminated domestic competition in particular where:”
• the domestic competitions have not been prematurely terminated based on the reasons given in these UEFA guidelines or on the basis of any other legitimate public health reasons;
• the clubs were selected pursuant to a procedure which was not objective, transparent and non-discriminatory so that the selected clubs could not be considered as having been qualified on sporting merit.
Celtic's 9-in-a-Row Hung out to Dry, the Rangers left Blowing in the Wind | The Celtic Star https://t.co/u4zsM5g14v
— The Celtic Star Editor (@CelticStarMag) April 25, 2020
Sporting merit is the key phrase in that last paragraph and exactly the reason why the decision the Dutch football authorities took makes sense on their own unique league placings. It’s also why Scotland and Belgium – to maintain that same sporting integrity – also have to have a differing approach to ending their respective leagues.
In the Netherlands Ajax led AZ by goal difference with nine games to play, and Utrecht were three points behind Willem II with a game in hand and better goal difference. It was on such marginal decisions that the Dutch decision to call the placings made sense, as did their decision not to award the titles.
With little more than a cigarette paper between the top two, to declare a winner would have been harsh. Yet the authorities had the elephant in the room of providing the names of clubs taking part in European football this season. This solution allowed both the sporting integrity to be maintained while carrying out the instructions from UEFA regarding European participants for 2020/21.
A play off type approach may have suited all parties yet Dutch official were hamstrung by Prime Minister Rutte’s 1st September ban on organised events. The Dutch were boxed in with no way out. Even the opportunity to carry out play offs to end the season couldn’t be done without compromising the start of the following campaign.
It is far from ideal of course, in particular in the Eerste Divisie below, where Cambuur, 11 points clear of third place were denied promotion. But there is clear logic in the decision for the top flight and there is no perfect solution for any league. It may be when the decision goes to UEFA for ratification they may have concerns regarding Cambuur’s position, however as all clubs have been treated the same and UEFA’s disinterest in anything outside the member clubs top divisions it’s unlikely to be challenged.
There was also clear logic when in Belgium the Jupiler League took a different tack when they ended their season. Club Brugge were awarded both the title and the European place as they had won both on sporting merit, given there was very little statistical chance the second place side Gent with Charleroi a further point behind in third, could catch them. Club Brugge were 15 points clear.
Statistically Celtic have a 98.87% chance of winning the league title should it be played out with a 13 point advantage over ‘the’ Rangers in second place. To deny crowning a champion and awarding the Champions league place would fly in the face of UEFA’s request for sporting merit to be at the core of the individual leagues decisions. Lawyers would say that makes it beyond reasonable doubt.
Incidentally does anyone remember the Daily Record’s Super Computer? This was first mentioned last October and it predicted that the Rangers would win the league by two points. However by January they got even bolder. After the Rangers won at Celtic Park they predicted game by game the results until the end of the season. The October article in the Record is still showing in a Google search but their more detailed feature from January 2020 has mysteriously disappeared.
Does anyone have a screenshot?
Here is their headline from 9 October 2019…
Supercomputer makes Celtic and Rangers title prediction as Kilmarnock tipped for stunning season
And here’s how the Daily Record reckoned that the league…
Predicted Premier League table
1. (the) Rangers – 92 points
2. Celtic – 89 points
3. Kilmarnock – 57 points
4. Aberdeen – 54 points
5. Motherwell – 54 points
6. Livingston – 47 points
7. Hibs – 46 points
8. Ross County – 44 points
9. Hearts – 42 points
10. St Johnstone – 36 points
11. Hamilton – 35 points
12 . St Mirren – 35 points
If anyone has that Supercomputer article and predictions from January could you email to editor@thecelticstar.co.uk please?
Their captain keeps saying he's a winner. He was that day when they sold out Hampden to beat Peterhead to lift the Petrofac Training Cup – their one and only cup triumph, adding to a few lower league titles won. Not much return for the money they've spent. pic.twitter.com/O9juANdhy1
— The Celtic Star Editor (@CelticStarMag) April 25, 2020
Anyway back to the main point. The play off method could have been introduced and I’m sure one particular side would have like that option. Yet without a handicap system in place ‘Sporting Merit’ would have been out the window. I’m sure the Ibrox club would have had reservations of starting a play-off with the disadvantage of being a few goals down. To deny provisional Scottish champions Celtic the league title or even ask them to play off without a handicap system in place would be at odds with UEFA’s direction.
Scotland has of course yet to press the button to end the top flight, with hope in some places that even this season could be concluded behind closed doors. For me that is wishful thinking, though if we can wait without prejudicing the survival of other Scottish Premiership clubs then there is no harm in showing a little patience and seeing if the Covid-19 landscape changes dramatically in the next few weeks. Scotland at least is not hamstrung by a 1 September roadblock like the Dutch had to contend with. Ours is 10 June for now and that is from the SFA rather than a direction from the First Minister.
What is absolutely certain is that both the Belgian and Dutch Leagues have landed on solutions that are fair to the participants in their respective divisions and are in line with guidance from UEFA. As things stand so is the SPFL resolution.
It would be ludicrous to even consider the SPFL adopting the Dutch model when the clear precedent set by the Belgian league is far more in line with the current situation in Scotland. I’m sure a few bluenoses will be out of joint and the Oranje approach to ending their season would have given some within their ranks and even in their boardroom some hope. UEFA’s own guidance extinguishes that flame.
Their only chance now would be with football played Behind Closed Doors and all at Celtic would welcome that opportunity in a heartbeat.
Whether that happened remains to be seen. What doesn’t however, is the destination of this year’s league title.
Be it on the field of play behind closed doors or with a statement from Neil Doncaster on the SPFL website, 9-in-a-row will be won and at UEFA’s behest, entirely on sporting merit.
Incidentally the Champions photograph at that top of the page features a famous Celtic goalkeeper from the Lisbon era – John Fallon. He’s mentioned in an excellent article by David Potter that was published on The Celtic Star late last night and is highly recommended.
So who was #Celtic's Greatest Goalkeeper? – David Potter narrows it down to two @CelticStarMag https://t.co/qTbNf8HBTq
— Celtic news now (@Celticnewsnow) April 24, 2020
Niall J
INVINCIBLE by Matt Corr
The Celtic Star’s very own Matt Corr – who you may also know as a Tour Guide at Celtic Park – publishes his first Celtic book, titled INVINCIBLE – early next month. This beautiful hardback book will be the definitive story of Celtic’s magical2016-17 season – it truly is wonderful, a real joy to read, and brilliantly written by Matt.
If you have been reading Matt’s regular contributions on The Celtic Star or indeed in the Matchday Programme or in the Celtic View you will know just how talented a Celtic writer he is. The book is published by The Celtic Star and you can pre-order below.
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