The timing of this year’s transfer window – closing as it does on Monday 5 October – looks like it will add an interesting dynamic in comparison to previous seasons. Celtic have made a habit of late deals being concluded near to the end of the transfer window period in previous campaigns. It may well be that will be the way it works out again this summer, indeed there may be method to such an approach.
By the time 5 October comes around Celtic will have played over a quarter of their league fixtures – ten in total – whereas in previous seasons by the time the window closed Celtic would often only have concluded somewhere around 10% of their league fixtures.
There was little room for assessing the start of the season, how injuries or suspensions were impacting the squad or indeed simply form. This year that will be different, when you’ve played over 25% of your fixtures by the time the window slams shut, that chance to assess and evaluate before taking action may be beneficial. Of course that is not exclusive to Celtic, but with a financial edge over all our rivals it will be a tactic the Celtic board will likely consider, when it comes to a 10-in-a-row strategy that will also require a balancing of the books.
Many clubs in a financial predicament, due to the impact of Covid 19 on match day revenue and season ticket sales, are likely to start the season with what they have. The longer the season continues without supporters in the stadiums the more the financial pressure builds. Assets may look to be offloaded and if Celtic are indeed interested in players plying their trade in Scotland, there may be an advantage to playing the waiting game.
Celtic have already signed Motherwell’s David Turnbull once. The only reason they wouldn’t consider going down that route again would be to see how the player has recovered from his knee surgery. The delay to the transfer window would allow Celtic time to assess the player again in competitive action and conclude one way or the other as to whether the player has maintained the standards post injury that encouraged Lennon to want the player last summer. Motherwell themselves may also soften their financial demands given the impact by the first week of October will be more clear.
Scott McKenna is a player Celtic have long coveted, he appears to be a player who splits the Celtic support, but then what signing doesn’t? Aberdeen have already accepted an offer from French side Guingamp for striker Sam Cosgrove at £2million.
The player himself didn’t fancy that move. Yet the fact that the numbers involved have come out in public will surely mean Celtic are now aware that the previous price tag attached to McKenna may now be reduced as much as 50% if not more. Aberdeen will not be getting £5million plus now.
It is clear Celtic require a left sided central defender and McKenna is obviously a player Celtic have had strong interest in. It is clear we have received little encouragement from Aberdeen. Once again by the time the transfer window closes Aberdeen will have played nearly a quarter of their games behind closed doors, it could be Celtic with a little patience could get their man and at half or less what they previously intended to pay. It would also allow time to address if the players own injury problems that led in a delay in return to form last season are clear when the season starts. Others such as Lewis Ferguson and goalkeeper Joe Lewis may also be something Celtic could consider.
That goalkeeping position is the most pressing concern for Celtic at the moment. Attempts to sign Fraser Forster, Joe Hart and David Marshall are unlikely to move quickly with the English football seasons yet to even conclude before clubs look to make offers to players for next season.
It’s fair to say if you were running a football agency you wouldn’t be advising players to jump at an early offer from Scotland, you’d more likely advise your client to hang fire and see how the English market progresses over the next 10 weeks. We may have a strong need for a ‘keeper but the players and their representatives will see no need to rush a decision to suit our position.
For Scott Bain then opportunity knocks, it now looks certain he will start the season as Celtic’s number one and he may have as much as a quarter of the season to stake a claim to Celtic requiring a cheaper back-up rather than a first choice. At the moment that seems unthinkable to many supporters but it’s a fickle game football. A strong start to the season, especially in European qualifiers may see opinions change. The Celtic board may wish to hang fire themselves and allow that to develop. Such patience would also allow the English market to take shape and if a ‘keeper is required there may be more choice, rather than the limited options available now.
AEK Athens Vasilios Barkas seems to be attracting interest but it also appears the clubs are miles apart in their respective valuations. It also represents a gamble. I have a nagging concern – despite how good he looks in video clips – as to why AEK seem so keen to offload a goalkeeper to apparently fund their own transfer plans. If he’s so good why risk losing the last line of defence for six million euros?
In defence Stephen Welsh has already been involved in first team football last season. He has since signed a new contract and contributed to the Club’s sojourn to France over the last week. Jozo Simunovic’s exit from the club has opened the door for young Welsh to stake a claim to a position in Central defence. Could it be Celtic would only need to consider one central defender if Welsh steps up? Once again playing a waiting game until the end of the transfer window may make sense. It could be Welsh is good enough and he’d have ten league games and possibly European encounters to show his worth.
It’s fair to say if Celtic adopted such a long game to the transfer window that nerves would be frayed, we’d also be gambling with Champions league qualification. Yet this has been something the board have been willing to gamble with in previous years, is that likely to change now?
The Celtic board will certainly believe the quality in the squad is good enough to qualify for the Europa League as it stands. As such they may be willing to risk Lennon being able to eke out improvement from the current group and possibly qualify for the Champions league, comfortable in the thought the Europa League is a palatable fall back option.
Then there is another advantage worth considering. By the time the window closes our rivals across the city will be settling into the unenviable task of stopping the 10. Holding fire in the transfer market will allow us time to evaluate how or rivals are coping with the pressure. If they cope well and there is little between the teams then Celtic may be tempted to spend. If however ‘the’ Rangers aren’t coping with the pressure Celtic may hold the financial edge by hanging fire.
The ‘Rangers’ may feel forced into the transfer market themselves, further weakening what already appears to be a precarious financial position. Celtic could decide to sit tight or turn the screw and gain a psychological advantage improving the squad from a position of strength, or if behind at that stage, unnerving our opponents by adding to the group and testing their resolve.
The backdrop is risking a lacklustre start to the 10-in-a-row campaign and the usual gambling with Champions league progression. Yet despite players leaving hitting double figures, the core group remains intact. They will need help, but a little patience may reap reward.
The changes to the transfer window this season will make for an interesting tactical approach from those who will know they need to spend money but will be acutely aware of the requirement to spend no more than what we need. If we’re looking for quality over quantity in key positions, holding our nerve in the transfer market may well be beneficial.
Niall J
