Last night saw Celtic sweep Rosenborg aside 3-1 in the second qualifying round for the UEFA Champions League. The return leg next week will dictate who will face AEK Athens in the next round before the playoffs. The qualifying route has always been a long and winding road; however, UEFA have made changes to protect teams from the top five leagues and that means that Celtic and Scottish teams have suffered.
Tonight, three Scottish teams continue their quest for the Europa League; but how can Scottish football overcome these qualifiers and look to a simpler route – as was the case ten years ago.
One twitter user, Moravcik67, has explained in depth how the coefficient works for Celtic and the other Scottish teams. The account is normally excellent at detailing qualifying routes and regulations.
1. Some info on what would need to happen for Scottish teams to play less qualifiers in Europe, based on this season's access list.
The round a club starts in is based on the Scottish coefficient – which is itself based on 5 years worth of the results of Scottish clubs in Europe
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
2. The points a club contributes to the Scottish coefficient are
– During qualifying: Win = 1pt, draw = 0.5pts
– Group stage onward: Win = 2pts, draw = 1ptNote that the points a club get for its own coefficient during qualifying is based on the round the clubs gets reaches
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
3. For example, if Hibs lose both legs to Asteras, they'll have contributed 2pts to the Scottish coefficient for their 2 wins in the 1st round, but will only get 1.5pts for their own coefficient because that's what you get for reaching R2 of the EL qualifiers.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
4. Once all the points of all the clubs are added together in a season, the total is then divided by the number of clubs. This gives the national coefficient for the year.
The picture here shows the 17/18 Scottish coefficient pic.twitter.com/BDpRgfutLe
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
5. The 4.0 pt national coefficient comes from
– 7 qualifying wins (7pts)
– 2 qualifying draws (1pt)
– 2 post-qualifying wins (4pts)
– 4 bonus points (Celtic, for reaching the CL group stage)That's 16pts in total. It's then divided by the number of clubs (4), to give 4pts total
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
6. In short, for the national coefficient, every match matters. For the club coefficient, during qualifying at least, the only thing that matters is progressing.
Scotland was ranked 23rd for this season. That meant, the starting rounds for each club are pic.twitter.com/ztvkvnnHjn
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
7. So what impact would moving up the rankings have for Scottish clubs? Based on this years access list, here's what would happen if Scotland acheived the following positions on the list. Green for CL, blue for EL. pic.twitter.com/yqdeNuuVGA
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
8. As you can see we need to jump up to 19th before there's any change. After that, nearly every increase in position brings about a benefit to at leaest one of our clubs.
By the time we reach 15th, we have 2 CL clubs again, 5 clubs in total, and all skipping the 1st round.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
9. Sadly, we're going the wrong way just now. Next year we'll have dropped from 23rd to 26th. This is the country rankings used for the 18/19 season pic.twitter.com/y7hQmTjpgX
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
10. As you can see, we're not that far (<1pt) behind 19th position, the 1st position that would have an impact on where Scottish clubs start.
But beyond that, it's a much steeper climb – to the point where we almost need to double our national coefficient to get to 11th.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
11. The problem is that we need to take into account that 1pt in that table is not the same as 1 qualifying win. Remember that we need to divide points gained by clubs by the number of clubs? An increase of 1pt in the table is equal to 4 extra qualifying wins over 5 seasons.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
12. To reach 15th, and all the advantages that go with it, we'd need an extra 6.5pts. That'd pretty much require every Scottish club to contribute an extra qualifying win and draw each year for 5 straight years.
It's that level of consistency we struggle with.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
13. To reach 11th place, and get the automatic CL group palce, we'd have needed an extra 14.25pts on the Scottish coefficient over the last 5 years. That's not far off needing every Scottish team to provide 3 extra wins per season for 5 straight years. It's a huge task.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
14. Sadly, we make it difficult for ourselves. We drop too many stupid points. That 19th position could have been achieved had
– Celtic beat Lincoln Red Imps
– Rangers beat Niederkorn
– Aberdeen beat Fola Esch
– Hearts beat BirkirkaraNot too much to ask for, is it?
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) July 25, 2018
There you have it, Scottish football’s coefficient explained. Follow Moravcik67 for more Celtic related stats on Twitter.
