On Thursday 6 May the people of Scotland will go to the Polls to vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary Election. While not wishing to stray too far into political debate on The Celtic Star we thought we’d make a slight intervention today, to provide those among the Celtic support who support Scottish Independence with some informed and valuable information on how the votes that they cast on 6 May can most effectively support the Independence cause.
Now most of you will be aware that Scottish Tories like Murdo Fraser and others have cynically been playing the Unionist card with the Rangers support and this clearly is having an impact. So if they are targeting Scottish football to win votes then it’s fair game for us to dabble in this arena – just this once – and with a very valid reason.
The second list vote is how MSPs like Murdo Fraser gets ‘elected’ to the Scottish parliament. He never actually wins an election.
Has the constituency MSP for Ibrox been on to congratulate her local team on their success today? Usually quick off the mark on such occasions? @RangersFC #Champions #55
— Murdo Fraser (@murdo_fraser) March 7, 2021
So how SNP voters, including large numbers of Celtic Supporters cast that second vote on 6 May could have an impact on whether there is a Unionist MSP elected of an Independence supporting MSP taking the spot in the Scottish Parliament. Understandably Nicola Sturgeon is urging an SNP/SNP double vote but is that the way to go if you would like to see less Unionists like Murdo Fraser in the Scottish Parliament and instead an overall independence supporting majority?
If you are planning on voting SNP this article is particularly relevant to you in how you can use your second list vote to best help the overall Independence supporting MSPs in the Scottish Parliament.
The SNP, who we have had our run-ins with this season over their failure to deal with the Covid matters relating to Scottish football, are as you would expect urging their supporters to vote SNP in both boxes. Fair enough. But if you would prefer an independence backing majority in the Scottish Parliament the last thing that you might want to see is your vote ending up electing a Unionist like Murdo Fraser!
Rangers 5 Celtic 4 – The Queen’s 11 deliver Her Majesty the perfect Birthday present #ScottishCup #GSTQ
— Murdo Fraser (@murdo_fraser) April 17, 2016
So tactically how should independence supporting Celtic Supporters reading this, who will give their first vote to the SNP, vote on this list vote on 6 May?
We asked Bob Jack, now retired but for many years a Returning Officer in the Stirling Constituency (incidentally Bob is related to the late, great Celtic legend Neily Mochan) to explain the way these list votes are calculated and the best way to vote to ensure as many pro-Independence MSPs are elected as possible.
The reality, explained below by the former Returning Officer, is that an SNP/SNP vote could actually help get someone like Murdo Fraser elected at the expense of The Greens!
Here is the tactical explanation for you to consider courtesy of the former Returning Officer. Make of it what you will…
Mhairi Black MP in her article in last Saturday’s ‘National’ made the argument for #bothvotesSNP using the 2016 result in Lothian to prove her case. She shows that less than 350 votes prevented the last regional list seat from going to the SNP rather than the Greens who won it. As a former Returning Officer I was unconvinced.
What she overlooks is that in that election Ruth Davidson took the Edinburgh Central constituency from the SNP. With Baroness Davidson now having decided to take the ermine (and the twenty pieces of silver) the SNP have high hopes of regaining the seat with the formidable Angus Robertson, their former Leader at Westminster. If they were to succeed and if everything were to stay the same in terms of parties’ 2016 Lothian regional list votes, they would be even further away from the last list seat. This is because the ‘de Hondt’ divisor (by which a party’s total list vote is divided to give the vote used for the purposes of allocating list seats) would start at 8 rather than 7, meaning that the SNP would have 14,818 votes to the Green’s 17,276, a winning margin for the Greens of 2,458.
But it’s actually worse than this because just as the SNP divisor would go up, so too the Tories’ divisor would come down – making it easier for them to pick up more list seats. Without working the calculation right through, it is highly possible that the final list seat might even go to the Tories rather than the Greens.
The inexorable logic of all this is that the SNP are not within a few hundred votes of a list seat at all. Even if they were, it would be the Greens that would lose out, so no net increase in pro-independence MSPs. No, if their high hopes are realised and they gain more constituency seats their chances of gaining that last list seat disappear over the horizon. What actually happens is the chances of the Greens losing out to the Tories or Labour increase, so the real possibility of a net gain for unionists.
So, Mhairi Black’s arithmetic, properly understood, is actually a powerful case for not voting SNP on the regional list ballot in Lothian, but instead voting Green to boost their 2016 vote and help them stave off the challenge from unionist parties who because they will have lost constituencies, will be much more able to win list seats.
The same logic applies in the West Scotland region where the SNP have hopes of ousting Labour’s Jackie Baille in Dumbarton. A constituency gain there means the chances of a regional list seat diminish – in a region where, like Lothian, the SNP won no list seats at all last time. And the same also applies in Glasgow where they won every constituency seat in 2016 and no list seat so the chances of #bothvotesSNP delivering a list seat there are virtually nil.
Bob Jack,
Leith, Edinburgh
Have you checked out the Greens policy on GRA, the Greens believe that a Man can become a Woman by putting on a dress, a bit of slap and calling themselves by a Female name. This enables Men with intact genitalia, to enter Women’s safe spaces like toilets and changing rooms. It is a Rapists charter,very dangerous for Girls and Women. Do you want your 12 year old daughter sharing space with a Man. Very dangerous politics. Not to mention puberty blockers for Children.No Votes for Greens, try Alba instead for a Super Majority.
There must be no Tories! I take the point that is being made. Labour having collapsed, I suggest SNP for the constituency vote, then either Green or Labour for the Regional vote. Watch these plausible but treacherous Liberals! No Brexit! No Tories! No Royal Family!