THE BBC Sports journalist who broke the story of Arsenal’s £15million bid for Kieran Tierney is now downplaying the chances of the Celtic Star moving to North London. But he still reckons that KT will be leaving Celtic with Napoli rather than Arsenal now in pole position to secure the signing of the World class Celtic full-back.
David Ornstein has posted this update this morning on the latest he’s hearing about cash-strapped Arsenal frustrating summer.
“As things stand Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace to Arsenal not happening, will take major change(s) to materialise. Also hearing Napoli edging ahead in Kieran Tierney race but deal still there to be done. As we know cash the issue for Arsenal this summer.”
As things stand Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace to Arsenal not happening, will take major change(s) to materialise. Also hearing Napoli edging ahead in Kieran Tierney race but deal still there to be done. As we know cash the issue for #AFC this summer #CPFC #CelticFC #SSCNapoli https://t.co/CoNLGmdS7F
— David Ornstein (@bbcsport_david) July 2, 2019
One Gooner replied to the BBC man, “I said give me transfer news not depression” and that seems to be the mood among their support. Another one of their supporters summed it up perfectly with this graphic…
This morning on The Celtic Star we gave some detailed background – courtesy of The Swiss Ramble’s twitter feed – on the many problems that Arsenal are facing. Here is the information again in case you missed it….
In the early 1980s those of us old enough to remember, watched as Celtic’s best player since Kenny Dalglish, the home-grown Charlie Nicholas – and in his first spell at Celtic he was absolutely sensational – swapped Celtic for Arsenal and in doing so made a huge error as far as his playing career went. Had he followed King Kenny to Anfield he’d probably have become a superstar and won numerous European Cups.
Kieran Tierney could be about to go down the same path all these years later. Arsenal it seems are a Premier League club in decline and are perhaps in comparison to all the club’s usually around them in their league, going backwards.
Have a look at the analysis on football business blogger The Swiss Ramble’s twitter account on this subject. It has very relevant information about the negative aspects of Arsenal’s prospects that Kieran Tierney and his advisors would do well to consider.
As Arsenal fans nervously await the outcome of this summer’s transfer window, I thought it might be interesting to look at why the club is facing more financial challenges these days. Some thoughts in the following thread #afcb
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
On the face of it, #AFC are doing fine, having reported profits for 16 consecutive years, adding up to a grand total of £393m, averaging £25m a year. Furthermore, Arsenal’s profits in the last two years were a healthy £70m in 2017/18 and £45m in 2016/17. pic.twitter.com/GCOOn0e33f
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In fact, #AFC £70m profit before tax in 2017/18 (the most recent published accounts) was actually the fifth highest ever registered in the Premier League, though it is worth noting that this was comfortably surpassed by two rivals that season: #THFC £139m and #LFC £125m. pic.twitter.com/1FAW4ZVPzu
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
However, this profit was driven by £120m from player sales, so #AFC actually made a hefty £42m operating loss in 2017/18 – a £94m decline from the previous season’s £52m operating profit. This was due to the “double whammy” of no Champions League and a surging wage bill. pic.twitter.com/hRcU6Hjlud
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In fact, given that there were no major player sales in 2018/19 (only Perez, Campbell and Akpom), it is highly likely that #AFC will report a large loss before tax for last season – the first time the club will have slipped into the red since 2002.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC were the only club in England’s Big Six to see revenue fall in 2018. In fact, their £38m growth since 2016 is miles lower than their main rivals, four of whom had revenue growth above £100m. Most painfully, in this time #THFC have closed the gap from £141m to just £10m. pic.twitter.com/C9hMASqVI7
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In 2010 #AFC revenue of £223m was second only to #MUFC in Rngkand, but they have slipped to 5th place in 2018 with £389m. They are now at least £50m behind the top four clubs: #MUFC £201m, #MCFC £114m, #LFC £66m & #CFC £59m. The swing to #LFC over this period is more than £100m. pic.twitter.com/n1z2G2p6pp
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Looking at the 2018 Money League, it is striking to see that #AFC had the worst revenue performance of all the clubs in the Top 20, falling by £30m compared to the previous year. In stark contrast, there was strong YoY growth at #LFC £91m, #CFC £80m, #THFC £74m and #MCFC £50m. pic.twitter.com/hsbHOC1fx2
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Chief executive Ivan Gazidis had boasted, “We should be able to compete at a level like a club such as Bayern Munich”. However, in 2009 #AFC were only £23m behind Bayern, in 4th place in the Money League, but this had risen to £168m in 2018, as Arsenal fell from 5th to 9th place. pic.twitter.com/qAw4PZ61jd
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
The failure to qualify for the Champions League has really hurt #AFC revenue. Despite reaching the Europa League final in 2018/19, this was only worth £32m, at least £50m below the English clubs in the CL. In fact, finalists #LFC and #THFC received £98m and £90m respectively. pic.twitter.com/3JVcaIbBB0
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In the last 2 years #AFC has earned by far the least of the Big Six in Europe, just £74m against #LFC £189m, #THFC £163m and #MCFC £157m. Arsenal is the only club to see their European revenue fall compared to the preceding 2 years. Success on the pitch is important. pic.twitter.com/x4NraftiCz
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In the last 2 years #AFC has earned by far the least of the Big Six in Europe, just £74m against #LFC £189m, #THFC £163m and #MCFC £157m. Arsenal is the only club to see their European revenue fall compared to the preceding 2 years. Success on the pitch is important. pic.twitter.com/x4NraftiCz
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
That’s equally true domestically. Although #AFC Premier League revenue is quite close to the rest of the Big Six, thanks to the equitable nature of the deal, they have the lowest growth since the latest 3-year cycle started, e.g. only £41m compared to #LFC £62m. pic.twitter.com/3GBcVg5K12
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In the last 2 years #AFC has earned by far the least of the Big Six in Europe, just £74m against #LFC £189m, #THFC £163m and #MCFC £157m. Arsenal is the only club to see their European revenue fall compared to the preceding 2 years. Success on the pitch is important. pic.twitter.com/x4NraftiCz
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC commercial revenue has barely grown at all in the last 3 years, up by just £4m since 2015. In the same period, growth at the other Big Six clubs ranges from £38m to £79m. North London neighbours #THFC have more or less closed the gap to Arsenal. pic.twitter.com/QDDc61eTdq
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Commercial revenue has long been #AFC Achilles’ heel, but the shortfall against the top four has significantly widened in the last 3 years: #MUFC £94m to £169m, #MCFC £70m to £125m, #LFC £13m to £47m and #CFC £5m to £58m. Where exactly was Gazidis’ supposed commercial expertise? pic.twitter.com/0RlIDLtZpx
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In fairness, better sponsorships will come on line in 2019/20 at #AFC with new Emirates and Adidas deals adding an extra £40m a year (plus sleeve sponsor Visit Rwanda £10m from 18/19). The problem is that the other clubs are not standing still, so their deals will also increase.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
The move to the Emirates Stadium increased #AFC match day revenue to around £100m, but there has been little growth since then (good news, as no ticket price increases), while other clubs have been growing this revenue stream through stadium moves or expansion. pic.twitter.com/eg2pFmUYdE
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
This means that #AFC still enjoy an advantage over their rivals in terms of match day revenue, but this has been steadily eroded, so the difference is now much smaller, especially #LFC £52m to £18m and #THFC £50m to £28m. New club seats will bring in an additional few million. pic.twitter.com/VDamdSaqSA
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Apart from £120m in 2017/18, #AFC have been poor at making money from player sales recently. In the last 5 years, their £165m is a long way below #CFC £337m, #THFC £265m and #LFC £260m. This is better than the two Manchester clubs, but they do have very different business models. pic.twitter.com/rxEb7WYXtC
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In the preceding 5 years (2009-13), #AFC actually made the most money £180m from player trading with the next highest being #MUFC since then, while Arsenal have fallen back in this increasingly important activity. pic.twitter.com/uB3zqi0o1w
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC transfers net spend took off in the last 4 years, rising from £40m to £232m, but this was arguably too little, too late. Furthermore, they are still significantly outspent by #MCFC £517m, #MUFC £447m, though they have spent more than #CFC £194m, #LFC £184m and #THFC £(29)m. pic.twitter.com/bSkHpmY9EU
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
However, this is partly due to #AFC inability to consistently make money from player sales, so on a gross basis they have spent a lot less than all but #THFC. In the last 4 years, #AFC £360m was significantly below #MCFC £689m, #MUFC £604m, #CFC £546m and #LFC £447m. pic.twitter.com/Mfdd9gRT4p
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
It’s also fair to say that although #AFC have finally started to “spend some fucking money”, they’ve not spent it very well. The attached player ratings are obviously subjective, but most fans would argue that the club has not got much value for half a billion outlay since 2013. pic.twitter.com/PXkQ1RCP5w
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC have in the past made decent money from property development linked to the stadium move, but this is now drying up. The club made £7m from this activity in the last 3 seasons, less than a quarter of the £30m they made in the 3 seasons up to 2011. pic.twitter.com/MLY14X4t3M
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Although there are issues with the size of the #AFC £223m wage bill, it is clear that their rivals are also outpacing them here, e.g. Arsenal’s £31m growth since 2015 is only higher than #CFC £28m, but it is around a third of #LFC £98m and #MUFC £93m. pic.twitter.com/zLD9iIfp53
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
The comparison with #LFC is particularly illuminating, given the Scousers’ recent success on the pitch, as #AFC wages were higher until 2015, but are now £40m behind. In fact, #AFC wage bill is lower than all of their rivals – except #THFC, who have over-achieved on £148m. pic.twitter.com/PAH6p4kh2Q
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Of course, #AFC wage bill will reduce following some departures this summer (Ramsey, Cech, Welbeck, Lichtsteiner and Ospina), but they will struggle to address the issues caused by incredibly high salaries for players they might like to move on, e.g. Ozil, Mkhitaryan and Mustafi.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Former chief executive Ivan Gazidis somehow received a cool £2.7m remuneration, even though #AFC failed to qualify for the Champions League, all revenue streams fell and wages spiraled out of control. For some context, he “earned” twice as much as his counterpart at #LFC (£1.3m). pic.twitter.com/8fKPpKCVk8
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In fact, Gazidis trousered around £22m for presiding over this decline during his 10-year tenure at #AFC. Nice work if you can get it. Maybe he will do better at Milan. “In bocca al lupo, Ivan.” pic.twitter.com/FHZj173qCr
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In 2018 #AFC also had to make exceptional payments for the first time in living memory with £17m for the departing Arsène Wenger and his coaching staff. Interestingly, other clubs more accustomed to such payments (#CFC, #LFC and #THFC) have reduced these recently. pic.twitter.com/2msdswjQKj
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC ability to outspend others has diminished. In 2012 they had almost as much cash (£154m) as the rest of the Premier League combined (£181m), but in 2018 other clubs have seen their cash boosted by new PL TV deals, so they now have £686m compared to #AFC £231m. pic.twitter.com/C2Thb1nfvc
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
In 2011 Gazidis said that “we deliberately kept some powder dry” re #AFC spending plans, which has made no sense, as transfer fees inflation has meant that prices have rocketed up, while the weaker Pound has further reduced the club’s spending power abroad. pic.twitter.com/oU6s02KJYi
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Some pundits might believe that #AFC have paid off the stadium debt, but this is not true. Arsenal had £217m debt remaining in 2018 with the majority only due to be repaid in 2029 (£50m in 2031). #MUFC still have around £500m, while #THFC debt will rise due to new stadium. pic.twitter.com/DIXSckbW54
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
So #AFC are still paying around £12m interest a year. Added to £8m loan repayments, that means £20m outgoings a year. The interest is actually less than #MUFC £19m, while #THFC £14m will rise once they have taken out all the loans for the new stadium. pic.twitter.com/gfqIM2atWz
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
However, while #MUFC can cope with the cost of financing their debt, due to their ability to generate cash, this is a tough ask for #AFC, amounting to around £100m over the last 5 years. In contrast, #LFC only paid £13m interest over the same period, a huge competitive advantage. pic.twitter.com/zkdpaAgCmp
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC unwillingness to spend their money also means that they have paid £33m to the taxman in the last 5 years, compared to a grand total of £1m from #CFC, #LFC and #MCFC combined. They were only surpassed by #THFC £46m, including £26m in 2017/18 alone. pic.twitter.com/1xOJLjzTct
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
It is evident that some clubs have benefited from substantial owner financing, especially #CFC and #MCFC who have received over £300m in the last 5 years. In addition, #LFC received £93m, partly for the Anfield expansion. In contrast, #AFC received nothing from Stan Kroenke. pic.twitter.com/UsMaeqJkOq
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
Given the ineptitude demonstrated by #AFC executives, it is debatable whether any Kroenke money would be used wisely, but there are things that he could do: (a) refinancing of debt (though high penalty payments); (b) Walmart sponsorship (at, say, £20m “market value”).
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
As part of a longer-term strategy, Kroenke could also invest significantly in the #AFC Academy, resulting in a pool of talented players that would either enrich the first team squad or be sold profitably (the Chelsea model, if you will).
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
#AFC have no FFP issues at the moment (either Premier League or UEFA), mainly thanks to the high profits on player sales in 2017/18, but this will become more of a concern going forward, despite the large exclusions for academy, infrastructure, women’s football and community.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
So, lots to consider for #AFC management, though the challenges could probably be simplified to Arsenal needing to get back into the Champions League as soon as possible. However, this is by no means an easy task, especially when their rivals are outpacing them off the pitch.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
I’d also like to apologise to the Gooners for publishing such a depressing analysis.
Trust me, it pisses me off just as much as you guys.
— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) July 1, 2019
There is also the medical that Kieran Tierney would have to pass to get his move. As he is still recovering from his double hernia operation at the end of May and was unable to train in Austria last week, will be pass such an examination?
The English Transfer Window closes at 5pm on 8 August, the day before the Premier League gets underway. The English clubs transfer activity will increase as this deadline approaches. Maybe Celtic would do well to wait and see what others offers might come in for our star player if he wants to go and perhaps Kieran can do better than Arsenal.
Judging from the above they are going nowhere fast.
